Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery Technologies

Summary

GBI Research's report "Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery Technologies" finds that the global herpes market is an attractive one, and is expected to witness growth during the forecast period and to provide good opportunities for investors. The expected high growth is attributed to increasing awareness regarding herpes infections and a growth in the diseased population. Many promising therapies, especially for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, are expected to launch during the forecast period. The market is currently generic in nature, with few first-in-class molecules. The current therapies provide only symptomatic treatment of infections, meaning that infection can lay dormant in patients, recurring in the future. This is unmet need of the market, which needs to be resolved.

The value of the global herpes market (herpes simplex, herpes zoster and Cytomegalovirus infections) is estimated to have been approximately $4.2 billion in 2010, and this figure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% to reach $9.1 billion by 2018. The market has limited scope for growth due to the heavy presence of generic products and the lack of innovation in the pipeline products. The current treatment options serve the market’s needs, providing symptomatic treatment for herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections. There is current unmet need in the market for safer therapeutics, particularly for CMV infections. There are nine molecules in Phase III of clinical development for various herpes infections. The diseased population is expected to reach approximately 158.6 million by 2018, driven by immunosuppressed patients and transplant recipients.

GBI Research finds that the competition in the global herpes therapeutics market is strong, with the presence of four primary marketed drugs and many generic brands. The total viral therapeutics market is forecast to grow at a high rate until 2018. The emergence of novel therapies concentrating on increasing drug safety and increasing patient awareness and compliance are major factors that will contribute to the growth of this market. Since the market is genericized, there are numerous small tier companies manufacturing therapeutic drugs. However, the tier one manufacturers such as GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis will continue to dominate the market due to their extensive marketing and licensing strategies.

The herpes therapeutics market (herpes simplex and herpes zoster) was valued at $3.6 billion in 2010. The market grew at a CAGR of 14.2%, from $1.6 billion in 2004 to $3.6 billion in 2010. The primary objectives of the available therapies are the suppression and treatment of the symptoms of the disease. Drugs such as antivirals, analgesics.

Scope

- The report analyses the treatment patterns, market characterization, pipeline, competitive landscape and key merger and acquisition trends in the global herpes infection market.

- Data and analysis on the global herpes infection market.

- Market forecasts for the global herpes infection market until 2018.

- Market Data on the geographical landscape including country wise coverage, cost of therapy, market size and market share.

- Key drivers and restraints that have created a significant impact on the market.

- Competitive landscape of the global herpes infection market including top companies profiles. The key companies studied in this report are GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Novartis and Roche.

- Key M&A activities and licensing agreements that have taken place between 2007 and 2011 in the global herpes infection market.

Reasons to buy

- The information in the report will aid business development and help marketing executives to build effective strategies to launch their pipeline products by identifying potential geographies.

- Exploit in-licensing and out-licensing opportunities by identifying products that might fill others’ portfolio gaps.

- Develop key strategic initiatives by studying the key strategies of top competitors.

- Develop market-entry and market expansion strategies by identifying the geographic markets poised for strong growth.

- Reinforce R&D pipelines by identifying new target mechanisms which can produce first in class therapies with more efficacy and better safety.

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 3

1.1 List of Tables 5

1.2 List of Figures 6

2 Herpes Market to 2018 - Introduction 7

2.1 GBI Research Report Guidance 7

3 Herpes Market to 2018 - Market Overview 8

3.1 Introduction to Herpes Virus 8

3.1.1 Types of Herpes Virus 8

3.1.2 Herpes Simplex Infections 8

3.1.3 Herpes Zoster Infections 8

3.1.4 Cytomegalovirus Infections 9

3.2 Introduction to Herpes Market 10

3.2.1 Revenue 10

3.2.2 Annual Cost of Treatment ($) 11

3.2.3 Treatment Usage Pattern 12

4 Herpes Market to 2018 - Geographical Landscape 14

4.1 Geographical Segmentation 14

4.2 The US 16

4.2.1 Revenue 16

4.2.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 17

4.3 Top Five Countries of Europe 19

4.3.1 Revenue 19

4.3.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 22

4.4 Japan 24

4.4.1 Revenue 24

4.4.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 25

5 Herpes Market to 2018 - Therapeutic Landscape 27

5.1 Global Herpes Therapeutics Market 27

5.1.1 Introduction Herpes Simplex Infection 27

5.1.2 Introduction to Herpes Zoster Infection 28

5.1.3 Revenue 29

5.1.4 Annual Cost of Treatment 33

5.1.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 34

5.1.6 Drivers and Restraints for the Herpes Therapeutics Market 36

5.1.7 Drivers and Restraints for the Herpes Simplex Market 36

5.2 Global Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market 37

5.2.1 Introduction 37

5.2.2 Revenue 38

5.2.3 Branded-Generic Share 41

5.2.4 Annual Cost of Treatment 42

5.2.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 43

5.2.6 Drivers and Restraints for the CMV Infections Market 45

6 Herpes Market to 2018 - Pipeline Analysis 46

6.1 Introduction 46

6.2 Research and Development Pipeline by Indication 46

6.3 Profiles of Promising Molecules in the Herpes Therapeutics Market 52

6.3.1 BA-021 52

6.3.2 NB-001 52

6.3.3 ARYS-01 54

6.3.4 GSK 1437173A 54

6.3.5 V212 55

6.3.6 TransVax 55

6.3.7 Adoptive Cellular Therapy (CMV Specific T-Cells) 56

7 Herpes Market to 2018 - Competitive Landscape 57

7.1 Competitive Profiling 57

7.1.1 GlaxoSmithKline 57

7.1.2 Novartis AG 58

7.1.3 Merck 59

7.1.4 Roche 60

8 Herpes Market to 2018 - Strategic Consolidations 62

8.1 Overview 62

8.1.1 Deals by Type of Agreement 62

8.1.2 Deals by Year 63

8.1.3 Deals by Geography 64

8.1.4 Profiling of Major Deals, 2007-2011 65

9 Herpes Market to 2018 - Appendix 66

9.1 Market Definitions 66

9.2 Abbreviations 66

9.3 Research Methodology 66

9.3.1 Coverage 67

9.3.2 Secondary Research 67

9.3.3 Primary Research 67

9.3.4 Therapeutic Landscape 68

9.3.5 Geographical Landscape 71

9.3.6 Pipeline Analysis 71

9.3.7 Competitive Landscape 71

9.3.8 Expert Panel Validation 71

9.4 Contact Us 71

9.5 Disclaimer 71

9.6 Sources 72

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Herpes Market, Global, Revenues ($bn), 2004-2010 10

Table 2: Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2010-2018 10

Table 3: Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 11

Table 4: Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 11

Table 5: Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 12

Table 6: Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 12

Table 7: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 14

Table 8: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-2018 15

Table 9: Herpes Market, The US, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 16

Table 10: Herpes Market, The US, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 16

Table 11: Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 17

Table 12: Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 18

Table 13: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 19

Table 14: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 19

Table 15: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 20

Table 16: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 21

Table 17: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 22

Table 18: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 23

Table 19: Herpes Market, Japan, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 24

Table 20: Herpes Market, Japan, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 24

Table 21: Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 25

Table 22: Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 25

Table 23: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues ($bn), 2004-2010 29

Table 24: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2010-2018 29

Table 25: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 30

Table 26: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-2018 31

Table 27: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 33

Table 28: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 33

Table 29: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 34

Table 30: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 35

Table 31: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 38

Table 32: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 38

Table 33: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 39

Table 34: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-2018 40

Table 35: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 42

Table 36: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 42

Table 37: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (‘000), 2004-2010 43

Table 38: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (‘000), 2010-2018 44

Table 39: Herpes Simplex Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase, September 2011 48

Table 40: Herpes Zoster Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase, September 2011 49

Table 41: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase, September 2011 51

Table 42: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Type of Agreement, 2007-2011 62

Table 43: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Geography, 2007-2011 64

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2004-2018 10

Figure 2: Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2018 11

Figure 3: Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 12

Figure 4: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2004-2018 14

Figure 5: Herpes Market, The US, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 16

Figure 6: Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 17

Figure 7: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 19

Figure 8: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 20

Figure 9: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 22

Figure 10: Herpes Market, Japan, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 24

Figure 11: Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 25

Figure 12: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Algorithm 28

Figure 13: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2004-2018 29

Figure 14: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2004-2018 30

Figure 15: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Branded and Generic Market Share(%), 2010 and 2018 32

Figure 16: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2018 33

Figure 17: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 34

Figure 18: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Drivers and Barriers, 2010-2018 36

Figure 19: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 38

Figure 20: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2004-2018 39

Figure 21: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Branded and Generic Market Share (%), 2010 and 2018 41

Figure 22: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2018 42

Figure 23: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (‘000), 2004-2018 43

Figure 24: Herpes Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Indication (%), September 2011 46

Figure 25: Herpes Simplex Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase (%), September 2011 47

Figure 26: Herpes Zoster Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase (%), September 2011 49

Figure 27: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase (%), September 2011 50

Figure 28: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, GlaxoSmithKline, SWOT, 2011 58

Figure 29: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, Novartis, SWOT, 2011 59

Figure 30: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, Merck, SWOT, 2011 60

Figure 31: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, Roche, SWOT, 2011 61

Figure 32: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Type of Agreement (%), 2007-2011 62

Figure 33: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Year, 2007-2011 63

Figure 34: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Geography, (%), 2007-2011 64

Figure 35: GBI Research Market Forecasting Model 70